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Trump gains minority support, voter registration in battleground states

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Two indicators in the battleground, must-win states of Florida and Pennsylvania show Biden fading with voters, especially minority voters, causing Democrats to panic.

“The GOP has added almost 198,000 registered voters to the books [in Pennsylvania] compared to this time four years ago,” reports Politico, “whereas Democrats have gained an extra 29,000. Though Democrats still outnumber Republicans by about 750,000 voters in the state, the GOP has seized on their uptick in party members as a sign that Trump is on track to win this critical Rust Belt swing state a second time.”

Overall, the Democrats have seen their registration advantage — often considered a proxy for actual voting — trend down by two points, while Republicans have added a point in registration.

“’It’s Trump, Trump, Trump,’ said Gloria Lee Snover, chair of the Northampton County Republican Party,” added Politico. “They’re like, ‘Oh, I want to be in the Trump party.’ It’s kind of funny. … I’m like, ‘You mean the Republican Party?’ They’re like, ‘Oh, yeah.’”

In 2016, Trump won Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes by about 45,000 out of 7 million votes cast, even though most polls showed Trump losing Pennsylvania, so an increase in 170,000 registered Republicans could be decisive this time around.  

Currently, polls from Real Clear Politics show that Pennsylvania is leaning to Biden.

In South Florida, polls show Latino voters abandoning Biden and the Democrats, in a state where Trump and Biden are stalemated in the polls.

“In Miami-Dade County,” reports The Hill, “the most populous in Florida and one of the most reliable Democratic strongholds in statewide elections, a poll from Bendixen & Amandi International and the Miami Herald showed Biden and Trump virtually tied among Hispanic voters, with Biden garnering 46 percent to Trump’s 47 percent.”

In 2016, Trump carried Florida by about 113,000 votes out of just over 9 million votes cast. The general consensus amongst pollsters was that Clinton would win Florida in 2016.

Polls from Real Clear Politics now show Biden and Trump in a statistical dead-heat in Florida for the election in November.

The bad news for the Democrats is that Hispanic voters in Florida are giving Joe Biden less support than they did Hillary Clinton, which wasn’t enough for her to win the state.  

“The polls suggest he’s not doing enough,” said Fernand Amandi, whose firm conducted the poll of Miami-Dade voters, writes The Hill. “That potentially could be offset by the very fact that, if Biden is able to overperform with white Anglo voters across the state, his erosion with Hispanics might not matter so much. But that’s a very risky bet the Biden campaign is making if that’s the case.”

Trump’s support amongst both Black and Latino voters nationwide is much more solid in 2020 than it was in 2016.

Pollster John Zogby noted this week that Biden is well below the 90 percent threshold of Black support that other Democrat presidential candidates have enjoyed. Trump’s current 14 percent support amongst Blacks is better than the 9 percent he enjoyed against Clinton in 2016.

“And a poll from Emerson College conducted after the Democratic and Republican national conventions last month found Trump performing nearly 10 points better among Latino voters nationally than he did in 2016, when he captured only about 28 percent of the vote,” says The Hill.

The impact of Biden’s weak support amongst minorities could have consequences in other states as well.

“If Trump’s 14% total holds into November, this could hurt the Democratic nominee again in must-win in critical Rust Belt, along with Minnesota, Georgia, and Texas, which Biden hopes to win,” Zogby said according to the Washington Examiner.

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