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Election

Polls show Trump with 5 percent lead over Biden in Texas, contradicting COVID message

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A new poll commissioned by the University of Texas/Texas Tribune (UT/TT) shows President Trump maintaining a 5-point lead in Texas over Democrat presidential nominee Joe Biden, in contradiction of many national polls that have Biden with a commanding lead over Trump.

“Despite the dramatic swings in events and issues during 2020, the contest for the hearts and minds of Texas voters has changed little in the race for the nation’s top elected office. The latest poll is a case in point; the survey was conducted during a period that included the first presidential debate and Trump’s hospitalization for COVID-19. Even so, the result is in line with previous UT/TT surveys. In February, a UT/TT Poll found Trump ahead of Biden 47%-43% in what was then a hypothetical head-to-head race, because the Democrats had not chosen their nominee. In April, Trump led 49%-44%, and in June, 48%-44%,” says an analysis of the survey by the Texas Tribune.

Just one day ago, DailyKos and Civiqs released a Texas survey that showed Trump and Biden tied in Texas.

Most Texas polling tends to favor Trump, which flies in the face of conventional thinking that the Trump campaign is taking a hit on management of coronavirus.

As the UT/TT analysis notes, their surveys of the 2020 presidential election campaign have been remarkably stable in Texas since April.  

Texas was hard hit by coronavirus in the second surge, which Democrats have tried to pin on Trump.

Outside of New York, no state had more deaths attributed to COVID-19 than the 16,886 suffered in Texas.

But even Democrats say COVID isn’t the top issue in the race.

“The economy was the most important issue behind the presidential vote for 11% of voters, and for 22% of independents asked to name the top issue behind their choice. It was also the top pick among Republicans (15%), followed by socialism and/or communism, the issue mentioned by 12% of Republican voters on that open-ended question. Among Democrats, 19% cited removing the president as their top issue, followed by coronavirus/COVID-19 (11%) and health care (9%),” says the Texas Tribune.

One issue in the survey noted for Trump is that Texas Democrats often cross over to support Republicans, says the Tribune, noting 10-point Texas margins for Republicans George W. Bush and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott. But that support is failing to materialize in the polls thus far for Trump. Whether it will show up in actual voting is an open question.

A Rasmussen survey of voters in September said that up to 17% of likely voters who say they “strongly approve” of Trump “are less likely to let others know how they intend to vote in the upcoming election.”

“At this time in the 2016 election cycle with Trump already being regularly bashed by the media, Republicans were similarly less forthcoming about how they intended to vote, and pollsters, with the exception of Rasmussen Reports and a couple others, completely missed Trump’s surprise victory,” said the Washington Examiner.

It should be noted that Trump won Texas in 2016 by nine points, which is a few point higher than the polls suggested at this point in 2016.  

PHOTO: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

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  1. Avatar
    A. D. Roberts October 9, 2020

    We actually have NOT had that many deaths. It is just that the HEALTH Dept for Texas is packed with swamp critters wo have made sure that any death from anybody was counted as COVID if THE PERSON HAD THE VIRUS. They wanted to make the numbers high so they skewed the tally.

    Reply

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