‘Statistical anomaly? Fraud?’: Sen. Paul posts ‘interesting’ coincidence in 4 states Biden won
Time is quickly dwindling in President Donald Trump’s legal fight to reverse the election outcome, in whole or in part. But not all are deaf to some of the arguments Trump makes.
Sen. Rand Paul earned Twitter’s disputed-election-claim bromide after he dared to point followers to an analysis of election night voting patterns found on Substack.
“Interesting,” the Kentucky Republican tweeted, “Trump margin of ‘defeat’ in 4 states occurred in 4 data dumps between 1:34-6:31 AM. Statistical anomaly? Fraud? Look at the evidence and decide for yourself. (That is, if Big Tech allows u to read this).”
Interesting . . . Trump margin of “defeat” in 4 states occurred in 4 data dumps between 1:34-6:31 AM. Statistical anomaly? Fraud? Look at the evidence and decide for yourself.(That is, if Big Tech allows u to read this)
Anomalies in Vote Counts; https://t.co/DgBlYj9zUP
— Senator Rand Paul (@RandPaul) November 29, 2020
The link in his tweet takes readers to an analysis of four vote-total updates that occurred overnight early on Nov. 4 in three states: Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin. The analysis, by a poster named Vote Integrity, also compares those states to “data dumps” that occurred in Pennsylvania.
Well after polls closed in each state, Trump held substantial leads over Democratic challenger Joe Biden. Vote Integrity focused primarily on Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin – three states with a combined 42 electoral votes, or enough, had the outcome gone the other way, to keep Trump in the White House.
“While data analysis cannot on its own demonstrate fraud or systemic issues, it can point us to statistically anomalous cases that invite further scrutiny,” Vote Integrity wrote. Scrutiny, suffice to say, that will not be found in the mainstream media, which has shown its vested interest in the results as they now stand.
Vote Integrity studied 8,954 vote updates as reported by The New York Times on election night on Nov. 3 through about 7 p.m. on Nov. 4. But the report magnifies four pro-Biden “spikes.”
As vote tallies are updated, the report states, “It’s not surprising to see vote updates with large margins, and it’s not surprising to see vote updates with very large ratios of support between the candidates, but it is surprising to see vote updates which are both).”
“Nearly every vote update, across states of all sizes and political leanings follow this statistical pattern. A very small number, however, are especially aberrant. Of the seven vote updates which follow the pattern the least, four individual vote updates – two in Michigan, one in Wisconsin, and one in Georgia – were particularly anomalous and influential with respect to this property and all occurred within the same five hour window,” as Paul referenced in his tweet.
“Not only does each of these vote updates not follow the generally observed pattern, but the anomalous behavior of these updates is particularly extreme. That is, these vote updates are outliers of the outliers.”
For example, Vote Integrity observes, in a single update Trump went from more than 100,000 votes ahead in Wisconsin to trailing.
In concluding, Vote Integrity writes, “We merely show that the data, adjusted appropriately to remove differences in size and political leaning between states, does follow a certain pattern, and that four key vote updates deviate profoundly from that pattern. It is our belief that the extraordinarily anomalous nature of the studied vote updates here, combined with the staggering political implications, demands immediate and thorough investigation.”